NCAA March Madness Preview

With March quickly approaching and the college basketball season rapidly coming to a close, it is almost time for the greatest month of the year: March. And with March comes all the glory of brackets, bubble teams, snubs and Cinderellas along with upsets, anger, and calling in sick to work. 

Locally, there are multiple teams that are, at most, bubble teams and mostly having down seasons. Cincinnati and Kentucky are staring the bubble right in the eye while Xavier seems destined to be watching the entire tournament on TV. The normal strength of this region in the tournament will be a weakness this year unless someone makes a surprise run in their conference tournament. 

Nationally, the fight for the overall number 1 seed has not been settled as there are multiple teams vying for the 1 seeds. This is the case because of the lack of a single dominate team in the nation. 

While it is only February and a lot of things can and will change  between now and Selection Sunday, here is my Pre-March Tournament Preview and Predictions. 

Number 1 Seeds (overall seed in parenthesis)

Indiana (1)
Florida (2)
Miami (3)
Gonzaga (4)

Number 2 Seeds

Duke (5)
Michigan St. (6)
Michigan (7)
Syracuse (8)

Number 3 Seeds

Kansas (9)
Louisville (10)
Arizona (11)
New Mexico (12)

Number 4 Seeds

Georgetown (13)
Oklahoma St.(14)
Butler (15)
Kansas St (16)

All Tournament Team

G: Trey Burke
G: Shane Larkin
G: Victor Oladipo
F: Doug McDermott
C: Cody Zeller

National Champion

Indiana

Bubble Watch Resumes

Cincinnati (19-8, 7-7)
RPI: 40
BPI: 24
SOS: 28

Good Wins: Oregon (N), @ Pittsburgh, Marquette (H), Alabama (H)
Bad Losses: St. Johns (H), @ Providence

Record vs RPI:
1-25: 1-3
26-50: 3-3
51:100: 5-2
101+ : 10-0

Cincinnati started the season out very strong against a sub par level of competition which included the likes of Tennessee Martin, North Carolina A&T, and Campbell. Despite the lack of top flight competition UC began the season on a 12 game winning streak that included three neutral site victories over Oregon, Iowa St., and Xavier. The problems for this team began in Big East play and due to some untimely injuries. Since Big East play has began, UC has struggled to get that big win to put them over the top and their offense has been abysmal as they currently sit at 272nd in college basketball in field goal percent (41%) and 121st in points (69.7). Staying with tradition, Cincinnati stays in games thanks to tough defense and being the 6th best  rebounding team in the nation. They still have the possibility of making a late season run because their defense keeps them in all games (they have lost 8 games by a total of 38 points). 

In or Out?  I think at this point UC is in at about an 8 seed but if they continue to lose games at their current pace, then they may find themselves in a "needing to win 2 Big East tourney games" situation. Their SOS,RPI, and BPI are far too high to keep them out.


Kentucky  (18-8, 9-4)
RPI: 48
BPI: 43
SOS: 69

Good Wins: @ Ole Miss, 
Bad Losses: @ Tennessee (By 30 pts)

Record vs RPI:
1-25: 0-3
26-50: 0-1
51-100: 4-4
101+: 14-0


Pounded by the departure of many play makers from last season's Wildcat team, Kentucky knew that they would not be the dominate force that they had been the past few season, but they did not expect this. Kentucky has managed to stay afloat in the bubble talk by beating pretty much everyone that they are supposed to beat, but also have not beat anyone they should not have, Old Miss excluded. The argument for Kentucky to be in the NCAA tournament was shaky before the injury to Nerlens Noel but it becomes even more shaky with the loss of the Freshman phenom. Unfortunately for Kentucky, their remaining schedule does not allow for many big wins the remainder of the year with the exception of the March 9 match up with Florida. Their schedule does allow for some bad losses. My guess would be that the Wildcats will win all their remaining games except Florida which would bring their record to 22-9 but still lacking any big win. 

In or Out? At this point, I believe that UK will be headlining the NIT if something drastic does not occur between now and the end of the season, ie advancing to the SEC tourney championship. Being 0-4 vs RPI top 100 and a SOS as low as 69, it appears unlikely that UK could make the tourney without improving this profile drastically.