With only 1 day to go until Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training, the Reds have only a few questions they face heading into this baseball season, and most of them are very large "What ifs". The Reds have a very complete roster which promises to be one of the best in baseball, but like all teams they have their questions, here are 10 of the most pertinent:
10. What the catching situation and who is the starter?
Going into last season, the Reds made a big statement about how highly they thought of Devin Mesoraco when they traded Yasmani Grandal to San Diego as part of the Mat Latos deal, but then turned around and made about as big of a statement by sitting him consistently in favor of Ryan Hanigan and eventually sending him to AAA. Last postseason, the Reds kept Dioner Navarro on their roster as opposed to Mesoraco and then signed Miguel Olivo in the offseason. Now the Reds must decide what to do with one of their former top prospects. There is an outside chance that they send him to Louisville for more seasoning and they keep Olivo and Hanigan on the active roster, but more than likely he will be with the big league club and watching Ryan Hanigan, a grossly underrated catcher, anchor the Reds' promising pitching staff.
9. Who will be this Spring's surprise?
Every year there is a player that no one has paid any attention to in the past (Daniel Corcino last season) who busts onto the scene and suddenly makes a name for themselves. Typically this player does not make the roster, but at the very least sets themselves up for the future as a potential contributor. After reviewing the roster, I would put my money on Kyle Lotzkar to turn some heads this Spring Training. Then again, the point of the Spring surprise is that no one can predict it in advance right?
8. How likely are the sophomore slumps?
Todd Frasier and Zack Cozart both played huge roles in the Reds run to the NL Central crown last season, but the Reds have to hope that neither of them fall victim to the "Sophomore Slump". The Reds may be able to handle if one of them slumps this upcoming season but if the entire left side of their infield struggles it will be incredibly difficult to repeat as division champs.
7. Why does Scott Rolen have so much control?
Speaking of a possible Todd Frasier slump, we can not discount the Scott Rolen effect. Firstly, if Rolen elects to play this season, does he come in and take over the starting position at the hot corner? Personally, I and every other Reds fan do not understand why he holds so much power over the Reds anyhow. I get the idea that he brings a veteran leadership and presence to the clubhouse which helps the club to have success, so why not make him the bench coach or a special "clubhouse adviser". Rolen's stat line of 157 games with a .243 BA 13 Hrs and 75 RBI does not sound terrible until you realize that it is his combined stats for the last 2 seasons. The Reds need to turn the page on Rolen and not let him make the decision if he wants to come back and play, but rather make their own decision. Why do they want him so badly anyway?
6. What if Billy Hamilton is the best player in camp?
Although highly unlikely, what happens if Billy Hamilton outperforms everyone else in camp and has the best Spring Training of anyone on the roster? Can the Reds afford to allow him to make the Opening Day roster? Say he makes the roster as an OF, who does not start? Is it the guy you traded for this off season or the guy who you resigned? I do not see Hamilton having a Spring worthy of 25 man roster consideration, but if he does then he rest of the roster decisions become even more cluttered.
5. Which Ryan Ludwick shows up in 2013?
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Ludwick. The Reds hit it big last year with Ryan Ludwick having a great spring back year and at times carrying the entire offense during the absence of Joey Votto, but there has to be some fear that he will return to the quality of play he displayed in San Diego. Ludwick had not hit over .265 or had more than 22 home runs since 2008 before last season, and if Ludwick regresses back to those numbers it could put a huge dent in what appears to be a talented offensive unit for Cincy.
4. Can Shin-Soo Choo play Centerfield?
UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.
(Courtesy of fangraphs.com)
Last season while playing Right Field for the Indians Choo recorded a UZR score of -17 which ranked 17th among all right fielders and 61st overall when compared to all Outfielders. By comparison, Drew Stubbs was 16th overall with a 6.5 rating. The reason this is extra scary for the Reds is the fact that Choo will now be playing centerfield which requires more ground to be covered and an increased likelihood of an even lower UZR. The lasting effect this will have on the Reds is that the pitchers will be giving up a few more hits, which will result in a few more runs. The Reds are hoping his increased offense can offset the downgrade on defense.
3. Is Joey Votto healthy?
Votto was on his way to competing for another MVP last season before injuring his knee and being forced to sit out an extended period of time. After recovering, he was not the same player as he was before and was forced to be more of a line drive doubles hitter than a power hitter. Although he still reached base at nearly a .500 clip after returning from injury, the Reds will need a healthy Joey Votto to help power the middle of this lineup. If he can come back healthy and be the MVP player that Votto has proven to be in the past, this Reds' could have one of the scariest lineups in the National League.
2. Can Aroldis Chapman be a quality starting pitcher?
I have been against this move from the beginning. I get all the reasons that people think it could/should work. He is paid too much to be a closer, he was a starter in Cuba, he COULD be the next Randy Johnson. He also could have arm problems, not have enough pitches to be effective as a starter, fall back into the trap of overthrowing and walking too many people. I hope that I am wrong and Chapman succeeds as a starters but gun to my head, I think Chapman ends up on the DL before the end of May with "shoulder fatigue".
1. How good can the Reds really be?
Should they start planning the parade now? Maybe not but the idea is certainly legitimate and may be necessary come Fall. Each year there are multiple teams that have a real chance at winning a World Series title, and this year the Reds are one of those teams but in order to win it all, nearly everything must go right for the club. Do I think the Reds win the World Series this season? No, but I think they win the NL Pennant.
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