17 Days Until Selection Sunday!
Since last week, the entire landscape of college basketball has once again flipped. The season of upsets and top ranked teams getting beat has continued, and guess what folks: that is excellent for the fans and the game itself! Personally, I can not remember a more exciting college basketball season than this year for the simple fact that each and every night I can turn on the television and watch a great game. In years past there would be maybe 2 or 3 big upsets each season but that is happening weekly this go around.
Since Last Week: 3 of my projected number 1 seeds lost! 1 of the projected number 2 seeds and 1 of the projected number 4 seeds also lost once while a second number 2 seed lost TWICE. That means that 6 of the top 16 projected seeds suffered 7 total losses this week, or 38% of the teams. Yes, that could simply mean that I am just terrible at projecting seeds but the real truth is that this season is becoming impossible to project, but I'll keep trying, with that said....
Number 1 Seeds (Listed in order of overall ranking) [Previous ranking]
Gonzaga [4]
Duke [5]
Indiana [1]
Michigan [7]
Number 2 Seeds
Florida [2]
Miami [3]
Kansas [9]
Arizona [11]
Number 3 Seeds
Louisville [10]
Michigan St [6]
Georgetown [13]
New Mexico [12]
Number 4 Seeds
Oklahoma St. [14]
Syracuse [8]
Kansas St. [16]
Ohio St. [NR]
Fit that Glass Slipper (Possible Cinderellas)
Creighton - McDermott is the best offensive player in the nation, remember what happen when Steph Curry was the best offensive player in the nation?
Illinois - They will probably end up at an 8 or 9 seed which may make them a little high for a Cinderella but John Groce knows how to coach in a tournament and the Illini have a lot of talent.
Davidson- Always tough in the tourney. 3 of 7 losses are against Gonzaga, Duke and New Mexico.
Teams Bound to be Seeding Too High and Have High Upset Potential
Marquette
Colorado St
Oregon
Bubble Watch Resumes
Ole Miss (20-7, 9-5)
RPI: 58
BPI: 24
SOS: 156
Good Wins: Missouri (H), Tennessee (Twice)
Bad Losses: South Carolina
Record vs RPI:
1-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-3
51:100: 3-2
101+ : 16-1
Ole Miss is currently the last team in the field accoding to Joe Lunardi and ESPN Bracketology, which blows my mind. While Ole Miss does not currently have many bad losses, the fact that their best wins are against Missouri and Tennessee shows you how little they have accomplished this season. The combined record of 1-4 against top 50 RPI squads does not help the Rebels prove that they can beat teams that would be playing against them in the tournament. Lunardi is normally spot on with his predictions, but this is a bit of a head shaker.
In or Out? I see no way, short of winning the conference tournament, that Ole Miss goes dancing this season. An SOS of 156 is way to high to be able to argue that you belong with the most elite teams in the nation while you have not proven that you can beat anyone of substance.
Villanova (17-11, 9-7)
RPI: 55
BPI: 62
SOS: 37
Good Wins: Louisville (H), Syracuse (H), @ UCONN, Marquette
Bad Losses: @ Seton Hall, Columbia (H)
Record vs RPI:
1-25: 3-1
26-50: 1-5
51-100: 2-3
101+: 11-2
Battling night after night in the Big East or the Big Ten is what allows teams with double digit loses to get into the Big Dance. Villanova is trying to be this years example of such a team by posting double digit loses already to this point but at the same time setting themselves up to be right in tournament discussions. Being over .500 in one of the toughest conferences in the nation is a certain plus as are big wins over Louisville and Syracuse. The question with Nova is the whether they can overcome the terrible loss to Columbia.
In or Out? If it were Selection Sunday today, I'm thinking that Villanova is in the tourney as a number 12 seed but not in a playoff game. If they can manage a win either at Pitt or against Georgetown to end the season, then they are certainly in but if not then they might be forced to win one Big East Championship game if they want to feel secure on March 17.
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