There are two ways to look at being down 4.5 games to the best team in baseball with only 63 games to be played, you can either look at it and think there is no way that we can play five games better than a team with a .615 winning percentage or you can think that you still have 63 games to go to make up only five games. I prefer to take the second approach and here are five things that need to happen for the Reds to be able to win the Central Division.
Before we get this started, I want clarify that these will all be things that the Reds need to happen or need to do and not things that the Pirates or Cardinals need to have happen to them. The only team that the Reds can really worry about is themselves, if they win they will be in a good position and if they lose then they won't its that simple. The hard part is winning, but here are some helpful ways to make that happen:
1. Be Smart at the Trade Deadline
Baseball fans everywhere love the trade deadline because it means that your team might actually make a trade and pick up a big name. More than likely what it means is that your team will give away a prospect for an aging veteran that in two years will not be the player that you traded for this year. Yes, if that player helps put you over the top and sends you to a World Series ring (see Pence, Hunter and San Francisco Giants 2012) then you be all means do it but you do not stretch at the deadline and send great prospects for a mediocre player in return just becasue it will bring about change. Change for change sake is not good. In 2011, the Texas Rangers traded Chris Davis AND Tommy Hunter to the Orioles for Koji Uehara. Yes, that Chris Davis. Did Texas need bullpen help? Yes, but would they have made that same trade in February? No. That is the trickiness of the Trading Deadline, general managers begin thinking that they have to make a trade to make a splash as opposed to saying, "If the trade deadline were 6 months from now as opposed to tomorrow, would I do this?". Luckily for the Cincinnati Reds, they have Walt Jocketty at the helm and he is not one to panic or make a trade to simply make it. I have all the faith in the world that if the Reds make a trade, and I do think they will make a minor one, it will be a very well thought through trade that will not hinder the the future.
2. Get Healthy
Fans will want the Reds to trade for big names for the next couple of weeks and everyday there will be a new name attached to the team that everyone will be excited about, but if the player they are trading for is so good, why are they being traded? What if I told you that the Reds could trade Corky Miller, Curtis Partch, Logan Ondrusek, Denard Robinson, and Tony Cingrani for Ryan Hanigan, Jonathon Broxton, Sean Marshall, Ryan Ludwick and Johnny Cueto? That is exactly what the Reds can do by simply getting healthy over the next two months. For those of you not following along, the Reds can add a number one starter, great defensive catcher, right handed cleanup hitter, and a right and left handed set up guy and lose no one out of the organization. Getting these five individuals back and healthy would be the greatest haul of talent that anyone will get at the trade deadline this season. This team continues to hover without some of its most important pieces, they have a chance to explode when all those pieces finally come back together.
3. Have a Moment
This sounds dumb to begin with, I understand that, but really think about it. This Reds team has not had its signature moment of the season yet. Every great team has an unbelievable come from behind win or a special night that no one saw coming. Think back to the 2010 season, this Reds team had a moment but it is not what you are thinking. This is not Jay Bruce's moment. The 2010 moment was August 31st when Aroldis Chapman made his Major League Debut and the excitement overwhelmed the Cincinnati area. It was at that moment that people became believers and that is what this team needs now, they need a moment. They need that defining moment of the season when suddenly everyone in that dugout and everyone in this city begin to believe that we may have something special here, something along the lines of an unexpected walk off home run for a win that no one saw coming. The tough and amazing thing about predicting the having a moment, is that no one sees it coming.
4. Beat the Pirates and Cardinals
Simple right? You beat the teams that you have to jump over to win the Central. Yes, it is that easy but it also presents a huge opportunity for the Reds the rest of the way this season. There is no easier way to make up ground than to beat the team directly ahead of you. The Reds have 10 games remaining against the Cardinals including 7 at home, where they have more wins than any other team in the National League. The Pirates and Reds only face off 6 more times this season, but all in the last 9 games of the year. Combined that is 16 games against the teams directly ahead of you. If the Reds can go 11-5 or 10-6 in those games then they are right in the thick of things.
5. Beat Bad Teams
The Reds have been very good against bad teams this season, as you should be. While discussing this, why do so many people get bent out of shape about the fact that the Reds beat up on bad teams? A win is a win, and at the end of the year if you have more wins than the other teams, then you go to the playoffs. There is no such thing as a bad win in baseball. Anyhow, over the remaining 63 games the Reds play the Brewers, Astros, Mets, Cubs, Padres and Giants a combined 31 times. Those teams has a combined record of 250- 336, and that should only get worse as the Brewers will be playing without Ryan Braun and most likely Yovani Gallardo and the Cubs are trading everyone! August 9th-18th the Reds play 10 straight games against the Padres, Cubs, and Brewers and then on September 9th-18th they play 9 straight against the Brewers, Cubs, and Astros. Those are two stretches were the Reds need to put a lot of wins on the board. 31 games against those six teams should result in no less than 20 wins and you would hope closer to 23. I am a firm believer that you win a division by beating bad teams and doing mediocre against good ones.
If the Reds go 20-11 against bad teams and 10-6 against the Pirates and Cardinals that will bring their win total to 87 wins. They then have 16 games against solid, but not great teams remaining so even if they go 8-8 over that stretch, its a 95 win season and a trip to the Playoffs!
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