The non-waiver trade deadline is at 4 pm today and with the Cincinnati Reds struggling as bad as they have been struggling, losing 5 in a row while scoring a total of 5 runs, it opens the question of whether they will make a trade today for some offense. There are some obstacles in the way for them to complete a deal for a major upgrade: payroll, lack of quality prospects, lack of teams willing to sell. If you had asked me a week ago, I would have told you that I thought the Reds would stand pat but now as the season progresses and the wild card lead quickly is evaporating, I would say that the Reds have a much better chance of making a move than they did even 72 hours ago. They will have to overcome the obstacles I discussed earlier, but the savvy GM skills of Walt Jocketty leads me to believe that if there is someone out there that he thinks can significantly help this ball club, he will find a way to make it happen. Below are four possibilities that the Reds may be looking at and what it would probably take to get each of them.
1. Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants Outfielder
Salary: 13.8 Million
While I personally believe that Pence would bring a fire and some verbal leadership to the Reds there are just too many problems standing in the way of this trade taking place. Pence to the Reds has been a hot rumor over the last few days, but Brian Sabian (Giants GM) has said that he does not want to trade Pence and Pence has made it clear he would like to stay. All of that changes if the Reds present the Giants with a package of the players that they can not pass up. The Reds may be able to build a package such as this, but would they be able to take on the roughly 4.6 million still owed to Pence?
Estimated Package Needed:
Robert Stephenson
Jesse Winkler
Chris Heisey
Odds of Occurring: 3/10
2. Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox Outfielder
Salary: 12.5 Million (Under contract for 2014)
The White Sox have already shown that they are sellers this season and are willing to make deals after sending Jake Peavy to Boston. Rios would fit in nicely with the Reds, but much like with Pence he comes with a hefty price tag and the issue of once Ryan Ludwick returns of having too many high priced outfielders. Rios would bring a combination of speed (22 steals) and power to a lineup that desperately needs such things. Rios could fit nicely into the death trap that has been the #2 spot in the lineup. It seems like the Reds may be more interested in acquiring Rios because he is under contract for next year as well and could be shifted to center field in 2014 after the expected loss of Shin Shoo Choo. A small problem may have flared up last night as Rios left the White Sox game with a foot injury.
Estimated Package Needed:
Robert Stephenson
Phil Ervin
Neftali Soto
Odds of Occurring: 4/10
3.Marlon Byrd, New York Mets Outfielder
Salary: 700,000
A guy that no team wanted to touch in the off season suddenly has 17 home runs and 60 RBI while batting .282. Byrd is cheap and can play all three outfield positions while bringing some right handed pop to the order. He is not the typical #2 spot hitter but the Reds could position him into the cleanup spot and move Brandon Phillips back up to #2. Byrd has also hit these home runs while playing for the Mets in spacious Citi Field, imagine what he could do with the short fence in left field of GABP. Byrd is a free agent at the end of the season and will receive quite a pay raise so this would be a rental player by definition but may come cheaper than the previous two individuals discussed. Strangely, I have not seen any reports of the Reds connected to Byrd.
Estimated Package Needed:
Jesse Winkler
Low Level Pitcher
Odds of Occurring: 4/10
4. Rajai Davis, Toronto Blue Jays Outfielder
Salary: 2.5 Million
Davis has not been discussed as a possibility to the Reds by any reports that I have come across but I can see how a guy like Davis, who's price tag and required prospects is much lower, can help a Reds team needing to score some runs. The Reds could slot Davis in the leadoff hole (.282 BA, .327 OBP) where he would bring some much needed speed (31 SBs) and then move Choo into the #2 spot in front of Votto where he would see many more fastballs and way less off speed pitches. Davis is above average in the outfield, and once Ludwick comes off the DL would be a very feasible right handed bat off the bench who can steal you an important base late in a game.
Estimated Package Needed:
Ismael Guillon
Odds of Occuring: 2/10
Other Names to Keep an Eye On:
Placido Polanco, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Quentin,
Obviously, I have zero real knowledge as to what the Reds organization is thinking or planning on doing but these are some intriguing thoughts that could help out the ball club. I would almost be willing to bet that if Jocketty pulls the trigger on a trade it will be for someone that we are not expecting and haven't heard anything about, don't forget that he was the mastermind behind the Scott Rolen deal and bringing Jonathon Broxton here out of no where last season. He also brought Rolen, Woody Williams and Jim Edmonds to St. Louis at the deadline when those teams needed help. My gut tells me that the Reds make a move and it will be someone to surprise us all.
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