Thrice is Nice

1. The Big 162 is getting very interesting as the Reds have pulled within 2.5 games of the division lead. The biggest problem is that there are two teams that must be jumped in order to take over the division lead, but I do not want to talk about problems today. Now in the thick of the "Necessary 17", the Reds have been doing exactly what they needed to do: making hay against teams that they should beat. These next four are very big and against a good, but not great, Diamonbacks team who will come in ready to play as they are the nearest competition to the Reds for the second wildcard spot. (I promise that to be my only reference to the wildcard spot, because I am in division winning mode.) Anyhow through the first 10 games of these 17, the Reds are 7-3. My guess was that for the Reds to pick up the needed amount of ground to be in a realistic spot they needed to go 12-5. That would mean they go 5-2 over the last 7 games. I honestly thought that 12-5 was a stretch to begin with, going 7 over in 17 games is no easy task but the Reds are heading down that path.

2. These next four games are very important. The Diamondbacks are the only team in this stretch of games that the Reds play with an outside chance at the playoffs and a winning record. With that said, they aren't playing the Tampa Bay Rays, the team from the desert is a pedestrian six games over .500 on the season, but four games under .500 on the road. The Reds are 17 games over .500 at home (37-20) and have been throwing lights out. Yes, this is a much more challenging series than the Reds have had against the likes of the Padres, Cubs and Brewers but they are a good, trending towards great team right now.

Arroyo vs Randall Delgado: Advantage Reds
Cingrani vs Corbin: Slight Advantage Diamondbacks
Leake vs McCarthy: Advantage Reds
Latos vs Cahill: Advantage Reds

Those are the pitching matchups and let's be honest, in August and September it comes down to arms and who's rotation can carry a ball club. Also, don't forget the Diamondbacks played 16 innings yesterday and their bullpen threw 111 pitches combined. That's not easy to come back from.

I think Reds take AT LEAST 3 out 4, and I am very excited to see the Cingrani vs Corbin matchup, two of the best young throwers in the game.

3. The Reds play the Diamondbacks, the Pirates have the Padres, and the Cardinals play the Brewers. It is unlikely that the Reds will get a lot of help from either the Padres or Brewers over the next few days so winning is essential. In the case of the Pirates, I'm predicting a lose for them tonight. It is simply too difficult to play 16 innings, lose a heart breaker, and then board a plane and fly across the country to San Diego.

Reds the team to beat? According to a certain ESPN writer: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/39249/reds-now-team-to-beat-in-nl-central