Fantasy Football Preview

Let me start this out by saying that I am by no means a Fantasy Football Guru, in fact I have never even won a Fantasy Football Super Bowl, but I do study the players and the game quite a bit and have come to some conclusions. Every year, there are guys that burst on the scene and have career years (James Jones) and guys who really struggle (Larry Fitzgerald), so its important to take a few educated chances on lower tier guys and pass on a few guys that you are taking for names sake. I am not a big fan of the idea of a player being a "boom" or a "bust" because I believe that it is all relative, for example if you drafted Larry Fitzgerald last year to be your number 1 receive, he was a bust, but if you drafted him for your flex, then he was fine. With that said, I have broken down some players at each position that I feel will be either overlooked or overvalued (which I know if basically the same things as boom and bust, but I have to personalize it somehow) I would like to point out that I do not think all the overvalued players will play poorly this year, simply that they will be draft much too high and in the same respect I do not think my overlooked guys will be the best at their position, but they will be better than some guys drafted become them.


Overvalued:

Russell Wilson, QB Seattle Seahawks: Someone in your draft will take Wilson about 3 or 4 rounds higher then where I really think he should land, roughly the 8th or 9th round, because they will be excited about the prospect of having a great quarterback. What they should be is worried, Russell will be entering his second year in the league which means teams will have adjusted to his game play and he had very few targets to throw the ball too. No Harvin really hurts Wilson, so unless you are still riding the stats from Sidney Rice's year with Brett Farve or think Golden Tate can become a true number 1 receiver, I'd stay clear of Wilson any earlier than late 8th round.

Alfred Morris, RB Washington Redskins: Do the names Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, and Reuben Droughs mean anything to you? How about Roy Helu or Tatum Bell? These are all guys who had one huge year with Mike Shanahan and then pretty much fell off the face of the Earth. I am nervous that Alfred Morris will be the same way. My guess is that Morris will go either 1st round or early 2nd round depending on how many teams are in your league, and I think that his numbers at the end of the year will come up much below 1st or 2nd round standards. There is a reason that Morris was a sixth round pick in the real NFL draft. The biggest issue that Morris faces is that with the injury to RG3, the read option becomes less difficult to defend and everyone can key on Morris. Avoid.

Stevan Ridley, RB New England Patriots: What team led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season? The New England Patriots with 25 rushing touchdowns, so why do I think that their starting running back is overvalued? Those 25 rushing touchdowns were scored by 5 different runners. You can not trust Bill Bellichick to stick with one running back ride that guy to victory. Especially, when Ridley's back is more explosive, more athletic, and a better receiver. Sitting right behind Ridley on the depth chart are Shane Vereen and LaGarrette Blount. Vereen was a fantasy sleeper last season and Blount was a fantasy monster only two years ago. Too many options in New England.

Julio Jones, WR Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta has one of, if not the, most explosive offenses in the NFL but that creates a problem for Jones as he has to contend with the other playmakers to get the football. Jones is a big play threat, but sometimes that is all that he is and if the Falcons do not connect on the long ball then he can be held to very small games. In fantasy football, a wide receiver must get "targets" to be valued, if he isn't getting the ball thrown his way, then he is not going to catch it. Jones ended up 20th in the NFL in targets last season, behind names like Justin Blackmon, Steve Johnson, and Brandon Lloyd.  He had the same number of catches as Brandon Myers. Jones will be a stud in this year and likely will have a solid year, but please do not waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on him.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys: This will be the classic "name value" pick that someone will make in roughly the 4th/5th round when he should be taken no higher than 10th round. Austin is too easily hurt and will be playing across from a top 3 wide receiver this season. We all have watched Tony Romo play, if he trusts you as a receiver he is going to throw the ball your way a lot, and unfortunately for Austin, that trust has shifted to Dez Bryant.

Kyle Rudolph, TE Minnesota Vikings: Rudolph was that under the radar player that people jumped all over after week 3 when he was averaging 10 points a game to that point in the season. It's funny how much longer people hold on to good fantasy weeks in their minds as opposed to bad fantasy weeks. The typical owner will remember the 5 games in which he scored in double digits, but will forget the 7 that he scored 2 or less points. Yes, in 7 games he scored 2 or less points.


Overlooked:

Carson Palmer, QB Arizona Cardinals: Palmer will forever be haunted by the fact that he was an elite quarterback before being taken down by injuries. Yes, Palmer throws a bunch of interceptions, but he also throws a bunch of Touchdowns and for a lot of yards. Fantasy football is about stats, not about whether someone is a winning player, in fact with a lot of quarterbacks its better to be on a team that loses because you are racking up the yards late in a game that can not won. Palmer had 14 or more points in all but 4 games last season, 2 of week were the last two weeks of the year in which he was pulled from the game or injured. That is 14 points a game throwing to people like Rod Streater and Darius Hayward-Bey. This year he gets to throw to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Patrick Peterson. Expect a lot from a guy that you can probably draft in the 13th round.

Chris Ivory, RB New York Jets: Your quarterback is going to be either Mark Sanchez or Geno Smith and you do not really trust either of those guys, so how do you lessen the impact of their play on the game? You hand the ball off, and I mean you hand it off a lot. Ivory is going to be the workhorse for this ballclub on the ground and he has decent hands to catch balls out of the backfield. Even if he struggles and only averages 3.5 yards a carry, he is going to carry the ball 25 times a game. Thats 87.5 yards a game, or 8 points in a standard scoring system. 8 points a game not including receiving yards or touchdowns, that's plenty good enough for a flex play. Will probably average closer to 12 points a game.

Steven Jackson, RB Atlanta Falcons: All the reasons about the Falcons offense that I gave for not liking Julio Jones this year is exactly why I do like Jackson. Atlanta has not had a running back the caliber of Jackson since Jamal Anderson, Michael Turner could score touchdowns but could not do much in the middle of the field, Steven Jackson can. The overlooked aspect of Jackson's game is how great of hands he has and how good of a receiver he can be on swing passes and helping Matt Ryan (sleeper pick for fantasy football MVP) get rid of the ball when in trouble. My guess is that Jackson is 13th/14th running back taken in most drafts, but should be the 6th or 7th.

Dwayne Bowe, WR Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne, meet Alex Smith. Alex is something that you have never had the option of working with, a real quarterback. Expect Bowe to end up in the top 10 point scorers for wide receivers this season. This guy is already a freak of nature when it comes to playing ability and now he gets the ball thrown to him from Alex Smith as opposed to Brady Quinn. Bowe can probably be had in the 7th or 8th round and will come with a lot of value.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR Houston Texans: I am not a big fan of putting a lot of trust in a rookie, but I do with Hopkins. The kid can flat out play and he has Andre Johnson being covered by the best corner on the other side of the field. The Texans' offense is elite and adding Hopkins will only help to make it better. The fact that he is a rookie actually helps because it will force him to fall in the draft to about 3 rounds lower than he should. Of all the guys on this list, I suggest watching for Hopkins the most because you will be able to grab him the latest in the draft and he will bring you great value. Matt Schaub has been begging for a number 2 receiver for that team. Watch out!

Jordan Cameron, TE Cleveland Browns: Cameron has been the sexy sleeper pick for a lot of people this season at tight end, and I am right there with them. Is it because Cameron has some incredible background of football skills? No, it's because he is a freak athlete with a head coach and offensive coordinator who LOVE to use the tight end. Rob Chudzinski made Kellen Winslow into a Pro-Bowler with his vertical attacking offense that highlights an athletic and capable pass catching tight end. This will be the second time that offensive coordinator Norv Turner has had the opportunity to work with a big and athletic guy at tight end. One of those guys is 6'5", 245 lbs and played college basketball while the other is 6'4", 260 lbs and played college basketball. The first guy? Jordan Cameron. The second guy? Antonio Gates.