Thrice is Nice

1. The Return of Ryan Ludwick will be helpful to the Reds. How helpful? That is a different story, and one that many different people will tell you different answers. Personally, I believe that Ludwick will struggle on his return to the majors this year and that he will not be a huge benefit to the club statistically. The one bright spot about Ludwick's return is that he can be slotted into the sixth spot in the order and allow for Todd Frazier to stay in the second spot. This is not good because Todd has been smacking the cover off of the ball but rather because if a pitcher has to face Todd Frazier with a runner on second and two outs or pitch to the possible MVP on deck, he is going to pitch to Frazier. This means more fastballs, which is the only pitch Frazier can hit consistently, pitchers could afford to throw slider after slider to Frazier when he had the likes of Zack Cozart or Ryan Hanigan hitting behind him, but not Joey Votto. While Ludwick may not make a huge difference with his numbers, his mere presence will make this team better, and hopefully Todd Frazier better.

2. Joey Votto is an MVP candidate. The fact that the majority of the people who just read that sentence did not 100% agree with it is laughable. Typically the MVP is the best player on the best team in a certain league, and the Reds are not the best team. This means that Votto is likely competing against the likes of Yadier Molina, Andrew McCutchen, Allen Craig and Freddy Freeman.

Batting Average Ranks: Molina (2), Votto (4), Craig (5), Freeman (6), McCutchen (7)
On-Base Percentage: Votto (1), Freeman (3), McCutchen (7), Molina (10), Craig (13)
Hits: Votto (3), Allen (3), McCutchen (5), Freeman (13), Molina (19)
Home Runs: Votto (12), McCutchen (19), Freeman (33)
RBI: Craig (2), Freeman (4), McCutchen (10), Votto (23), Molina (27)
Runs Scored: Votto (2), McCutchen (8), Freeman (12), Craig (13)
WAR: McCutchen (1), Votto (4), Molina (10), Freeman (19)
OPS: Votto (2), McCutchen (6), Freeman (7), Molina (13), Craig (18)

Looking at those numbers from an unbiased point of view, Votto is your MVP. The most likely outcome is that Andrew McCutchen will win MVP if the Pirates win the Central.

3. 4 out of 17. That's the stretch the Reds are in right now, four out of seventeen games are being played against teams above .500. If you recall my blueprint for the Reds, they have to make up a lot of ground in this stretch of games.  They have crept back to within 5 games of the Pirates and can really put themselves in a great position by simply beating the teams you are supposed to beat the next two weeks. They have started out 2-1 which means that they need to go 10-4 over the next 14 to finish this stretch at 12-5. That's a logical number of wins against the likes of the Padres, Cubs, Brewers (7 times) and Diamondbacks.

Reds next 14 games:
Cubs: 3  Brewers: 7  Diamondbacks: 4

Pirates next 13 games:
Cardinals: 3 Diamondbacks: 3 Padres: 3 Giants: 4

Cardinals next 13 games:
Pirates: 3  Cubs: 3 Brewers:3 Braves: 4

This is the perfect time for the Reds to make up ground on both the Cardinals and Pirates. After this stretch of the games the Reds and Cardinals open, what will be, a huge 3 game series.

Current Standings
Pirates  70-47
Cardinals  67-50   (3 GB)
Reds         65-52             (5 GB)

Predicted Standings 14 games from now

Pirates 77-53
Reds 74-57    (3.5 GB)
Cardinals 73-57  (4 GB)