Friday, April 25, 2014

Trading to win

Draft day trades are almost as exciting to follow as the picks themselves, but typically people want professional teams to make "fantasy league" type trades on draft day and over value the picks that their favorite teams possess. There is a standard value chart used by NFL executives to decide the fairness or equal value of a trade proposal, a chart which is trusted and used to decide a lot of trades. Between now and May 8th, this blog will be focused almost entirely on the upcoming NFL draft and it will start with my review of possible trades to look for in the first round on Thursday May 8th and breaking down the value of each trade. Also, the link on this page will take you to the chart that values each pick. Of course, most draft day trades are unforeseen but here are some options that teams, either hungry for a certain type of player (Falcons) or have a lot of picks (Browns), may be interested in pursuing.

Let's start at the top:
Atlanta trades picks 6, 37 and 2015 1st (Total points: 3,130 (1,600 for #6, 530 for #37, and 1,000 for next years 1st rounder)) to Houston for pick 1 (3,000)
- If the Texans are not sold on any one player then this pick will allow them to stockpile quality picks for this season and next season. Being able to own 3 of the first 37 picks and a 2 first rounders next season will put them in position to turn around their organization immediately. Consider this: The Texans could add three quality starters immediately with their first three picks all for moving down five slots. If the Texans feel inclined to draft a quarterback in the first round then this would be their smartest move. What does Atlanta receive for this? Jadeveon Clowney.

Cleveland trades picks 26, 71, 83 (1,110) to Chicago for pick 14 (1,100)
- This trade is a win for both teams and allows the Browns to select either wide receiver or quarterback at #4 and still be able to grab a high quality player at the 14th pick. For instance, they could go Sammy Watkins at 4 and still most likely be able to grab Bridgewater, Manziel, or Carr at 14. Or they could draft Manziel or Bortles at 4 and then get a wide receiver with the quality of Mike Evans at 14. The Bears also come out on top of this pick by moving back 12 slots and picking up an additional 3rd and 4th round pick. Most likely targeting help in their secondary, the Bears know that there are roughly 7 or 8 secondary players with first round grades that they can wait on and get one at 26 and be able to add additional quality in the middle rounds.

The real fun with draft day trades is often one trade starts a ripple effect and results in multiple other teams making trades to adjust to the initial trade. We are only 13 days away folks....

Draft pick value chart

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