Drafting a Quarterback Early

Every year, as we approach the NFL draft, all the talk tends to revolve around the impact quarterbacks each season and who will be the first quarterback taken each year, typically as the top pick overall. This season is no different as the headlines all fall to Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater but this season there is also a strong class of "secondary" quarterbacks being reviewed and measured up by NFL head coaches and scouts. Guys such as Derek Carr, AJ Mettenberger, Aaron Murray, Tahj Boyd, and Jimmy Garoppolo are all fighting to be at the top of the second run of quarterbacks. These type of quarterbacks have been all the craze of late with the success of players like Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson becoming successful despite not being labeled "can't miss" or "first round talent".

The idea that a team can find a starting quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round is a great thought, particularly for teams who have multiple holes and would like to think they could fill additional holes by drafting a non-quarterback in the first round, but the truth remains that starting quarterbacks generally are drafted right where you would expect. In the first round. Recognize that this speaks in respect to starting quarterbacks, not successful quarterbacks. Those are two very different things, which will be seen in a minute.

Quick, try to think of every starting quarterback in the NFL that was not drafted in the 1st round. Were you able to guess 4? 6? 12? If the 2014 season started today, according to current team depth charts, 19 of 32 starting quarterbacks were 1st round selections, 5 were selected in the 2nd round, 4 in the 3rd, and 4 in the 6th round or not drafted at all. That's 60% of starting quarterbacks coming from the 1st round.

What does this all mean? It seems to indicate that unless an organization gets very lucky and selects one of the few quarterbacks in the later rounds that makes it to starting levels, you must select a quarterback in the 1st round if you wish to find a starter. The idea of a developmental quarterback to eventually take over the reigns after learning the game does not exist as often as many believe it does. The key, of course, is finding a quarterback in any round with the ability to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. With that said, on to the hard part.... drafting a quality quarterback.

For some reference on drafting starting quarterbacks and the difficulty of finding a player with the ability to succeed in the NFL, check out these stats.

Since 2004 (10 years is a reasonable amount of time that a team would hope a 1st round pick would perform)
- Quarterbacks Selected in 1st Round: 28
- Current Starter: 17
- Current Backup: 6
- No Longer in League: 5

A little under 50% of all 1st round selected quarterbacks are now either out of the league or not starting. Not the best return on investment. Come May 8th, if your team is drafting a quarterback in the 1st round, good luck.


A look at current Quarterbacks

QB Name	Round	School	Win%
Eli Manning	1	Ole Miss	0.563
RG3	1	Baylor	0.429
EJ Manuel	1	Florida St	0.4
Ryan Tannehill	1	Texas A&M	0.469
Carson Palmer	1	USC	0.467
Sam Bradford	1	Oklahoma	0.378
Peyton Manning	1	Tennessee	0.696
Alex Smith	1	Utah	0.55
Phillip Rivers	1	NC State	0.617
Jay Cutler	1	Vanderbilt	0.538
Matt Stafford	1	Georgia	0.393
Aaron Rodgers	1	California	0.667
Christian Ponder	1	Florida St	0.414
Joe Flacco	1	Delaware	0.646
Ben Roethlisbeger	1	Miami (Oh)	0.669
Matt Ryan	1	Boston College	0.638
Cam Newton	1	Auburn	0.521
Andrew Luck	1	Stanford	0.688
Jake Locker	1	Washington	0.444
Geno Smith	2	West Virgina	0.5
Colin Kaepernick	2	Nevada	0.739
Andy Dalton	2	TCU	0.625
Drew Brees	2	Purdue	0.595
Chad Henne	2	Michigan	0.36
Mike Glennon	3	Syracuse	0.308
Nick Foles	3	Arizona	0.563
Russell Wilson	3	Wisconsin	0.75
Matt Schaub	3	Virginia	0.511
Tom Brady	6	Michigan	0.775
Tony Romo	Undrafted	E. Illinois	0.583
Brian Hoyer	Undrafted	Michigan St	0.75
Case Keenum	Undrafted	Houston	0